inamerrata

Another note for future reference on the Iraq situation. Today’s big ABC news story is Commit troops or delay Iraq election, Govt warned:

The Federal Government is being warned against promoting a January election in Iraq unless it is willing to commit more troops.

Australian National University Professor William Maley, who has just returned from overseeing the election in Afghanistan, says an Iraqi poll early next year could lead to a “bloodbath”.

“One shouldn’t underestimate the risk of that,” he said.

Indeed. One shouldn’t overestimate it either, though. Here’s his recommendation:

Professor Maley says Governments, including Australia’s, should step back from the current plan and delay the election by some months.

For comparison, here’s a SMH article Prof Maley penned in July, mainly focussed on Iraq:

Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the situation is equally dire. Presidential elections are due on October 9, but forces to provide the security which Afghan voters desperately need are thin on the ground.

[…]

Australia pulled its troops from Afghanistan some time ago, and shows no sign of returning, even though the Afghan Government has requested ongoing support. In this respect, Australia’s priorities have slavishly mirrored those of the Bush Administration, which made the mistake of heading for Iraq well before the Afghanistan task was finished.

As analagous as that is, he actually offers a better rebuttal to his present concerns in the July column:

The immediate focus of these needs is the process of holding elections in Iraq, where the support of the UN is vital, and which is central to the plan for political transition to which the Howard Government is formally committed. Elections are notable for being complex to run, and easy to attack.

[…]

The need for contributions is becoming acute. On June 17, the UN Secretary-General, Kofi Annan, said he was “very worried” at the security situation in Iraq, adding that circumstances did not permit a return of the UN. If this continues, the timetable for the holding of elections will inevitably slip, creating a combustible situation as Shiite groups, keen for elections to occur as soon as possible, react with frustration and anger.

One month allowing any slippage at all will create a “combustible situation”, a few months later not deliberately delaying the election for months “could lead to a bloodbath”. Isn’t that the logic of someone who doesn’t have any idea what they’re talking about, or at least isn’t thinking seriously about the topic?

Final note:

“If we’re not prepared actually to commit troops to the process of protecting the authorities, then we have only ourselves to blame if the election turns into a shambles,” Professor Maley said.

Somehow I suspect Prof Maley and the ABC won’t expect us to be so quick to blame ourselves if Iraq follows Afghanistan’s lead on elections.